The Mariners have advanced to the postseason for the first time since 2001 and are poised to qualify for the World Series for perhaps the first time in history. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
Don’t sleep with the Seattle Mariners.
They have already come a long way in 2022, compiling a record of 79-61 and could reach their first postseason since 2001. The major North American men’s professional sports leagues are finally coming to an end.
Assuming nothing (including this article) jinxes this part of the Mariners’ voyage, they’ll be headed to a place the franchise has never been before: the World Series.
are we ahead? Yes, maybe.But you gotta forgive us for the hard times No I’m obsessed with the “team of destiny” that the Mariners are doing. His 50-22 record since June 21 is American’s best in the league, with six of his wins being a dramatic walk-off win at T-Mobile Park.
The most recent of these, and certainly the most dramatic, was on Sunday, when sluggers Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suárez washed up the bad taste of Atlanta’s 5-run comeback in the top of the ninth, giving the game a run. I hit a home run that won the game in the bottom half. inning.
The Mariners are embroiled in a fierce three-way race with the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays for the top wildcard spot in the American League, but their playoff fortunes aren’t in much immediate danger. According to FanGraphs, he has a 99.8% chance that Seattle’s playoff drought will actually end.
The Mariners have no easy route to the World Series within the playoffs, as they must find their way to the American League Division Series by winning a best-of-three series in the AL Wildcard Round.
Still, these Mariners propose to be the last opponents everyone wants on the American League playoff field.
Mariners’ starting rotation scheduled for October
AP Photo/David Dahmer
Of course, the best thing a pitching staff can do if it wants to survive the postseason is to not give up runs. But that’s easier said than done, so there’s another handy trick that’s easier to accomplish. Winning a strikeout.
Out of 376 playoff games from 2012 to 2021 (the equivalent of a decade coinciding with the first expansion of the wild card round), the team whose pitching staff had more strikeouts than any other team played 206 games. Won. That’s a .548 win rate.
As a good omen, this is actually double for the Mariners.
The Seattle starter has 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings, the second-best strikeout percentage in the AL since August 3rd. Not a random date, but the day flame-throwing All-Star Luis Castillo came from Cincinnati to make his Seattle debut. Reds.
MLB @MLB
Luis Castillo starts the game with seven straight strikeouts, tying the AL record! 😤 #ULTRAMoment pic.twitter.com/PxAOJSS4zW
Centered around AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and rookie George Kirby, the tone set by Castillo cannot be ignored.Combined, the three aces are 2.22 ERA Since Castillo’s arrival, he has only 24 walks in 125.2 innings with 143 strikeouts.
Young right-hander Logan Gilbert, meanwhile, is mowing them out in September. 9 batters in an inning.
He’s a generally reliable southpaw with a 3.89 ERA this season, so the Mariners may not be able to avoid keeping Marco Gonzalez out of the playoff rotation. But given that he has strikeouts (88) in about half the innings pitched (159.2), Seattle’s most threatening playoff rotation is one in which swing-and-miss players are a priority. There is no doubt that there is.
Mariners bullpen to be built in October
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
And then, let’s talk about the other half of the two aforementioned good omen for the Mariners. Their top reliever is also capable of playing the strikeout game perfectly.
The key date here is July 9th. That’s when front-runner Matt Brash made the leap from minor to big his club’s bullpen. Paul Sevart and Eric Swanson. Their last 100 appearances yielded a 1.99 ERA and 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
His fastball hit just under 98 mph, but it was Brash’s fastball that grabbed the attention when he pitched.
Rob Freedman @pitching ninja
Chic Stuff by Matt Blush. 🤒 pic.twitter.com/GXUsAKITA4
To him, Muñoz is essentially the platonic ideal of an overwhelming reliever. he’s averaging (yes, Averaging) 100.6 mph With his fastball over the past three months, he can easily beat hitters with sliders in excess of 90 mph on a regular basis.
Rob Freedman @pitching ninja
Andrés Muñoz, Filth. 😷 pic.twitter.com/uEvCRePqgz
To them, fellow right-hand men Penn Murphy and Matthew Festa are more than just background characters in the Seattle bullpen. The former has a better strikeout per inning average for the season, but is paired with an all-season miss rate despite the latter’s modest strikeouts. 88th percentile.
Whatever opponents the Mariners run into in October aren’t necessarily out of the woods, even in games where they can put their share of the ball into play. Still, his efficiency in turning in-play balls into outs means he’s up against defenses ranked fourth in the majors.
The Mariners’ offense has a not-so-secret weapon
Steph Chambers/Getty Images
Offensively speaking, the Seattle offense’s biggest drawback is its batting average. 230, the Mariners rank him 25th in the majors in that division.
But this shouldn’t be misinterpreted as a sign that Mariners hitters are giving more outs than they should. Even their average strikeout rate obscures the fact that there are a handful of guys who consistently come in contact.
Even better, the Mariners hit a long ball.
Seattle Mariners @Mariners
.@JRODshow44 ‘s first home run on Biggs is 4️⃣5️⃣0️⃣ feet! #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/RsJyltpx9r
Seattle’s 169th home run 5th place In the American League, they’ve been coming more often lately.The Mariners averaged 1.1 homers per game in the first half, but have averaged 1.4 homers per game since the All-Star break.
With 78 long balls between them, Seattle’s power display was mostly Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Rowley Shaw. But more may come out of other regulars. In particular, Mitch Haniger and Jesse Winker have only 20 home runs after hitting 63 in 2021.
With more power really coming in, the Mariners would be even better suited for yet another proven playoff mold. It also won the game itself with a .593 clip between.
Oh, and the Mariners beat a good team
Joe Sargent/MLB Photo via Getty Images
Speaking of win percentages, .536 is another number that bodes well for Seattle.
This is the percentage of games the Mariners have won against other clubs with a .500 or better. This is his third-best record of any AL club, and betraying his 7-12 record with the AL West-leading Houston Astros is not misleading. There is none.
Otherwise, the Mariners are 17-10 against four other potential clubs (Tampa Bay, Toronto, New York Yankees) on the AL playoff field. They won the season series against the Yankees and Blue Jays, and even though they lost 5-of-7 to the Rays, they were still winning by just 5 runs.
While it can’t be guaranteed, a pre-proven ability to beat other good teams portends success in the playoffs. In all of MLB history, only 27 of the 240 league champions had a sub .500 record against a regular season winning team.
Look, there’s no delusion that the Mariners will be popular favorites representing the American League in the World Series. The Astros are arguably the AL’s big bads, and Atlanta, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets are arguably even more formidable in the National League.
Nevertheless, all we’re saying is the Mariners are as playoff ready as the first team in 21 years.
Baseball reference, fan graphs and stats courtesy of Baseball Savant.
Comments
Post a Comment